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Hi Wolfgang/Chris and other lurkers,

wriedmann wrote:Hi Chris,
..., about 10% needs breathing apparatus, and there is no hospital on the world that has enough of them.
People that is over 65 years old has a chance of 7:1 to survive....

Well the one issue I have not yet seen mentioned anywhere in the world. South Africa now in 2 weeks have 13 confirmed cases, not much, but I believe the contact was far bigger than that... Consider a population where a 35%+ HIV/AIDS are found. Take ethnic groups into consideration and you have close to 50% carriers. If Corona start spreading in those poor areas, with a State of the Art medical facility that was run into the ground, we can see quite a different scenario compared to what is seen in the rest of the world...

Just my 2c worth.

We have seen similar things in the past - Remember polio?

Now we have panic buying - empty supermarket shelves and so on.

What we must do is acknowledge there are two interrelated and somewhat conflicting factors at play here, and take action accordingly.

One is medical - concentration on that is obviously at the forefront of minds and suitable action by governments must be taken.

The other is purely statistical: how is the virus being transmitted, what is likelihood of me as an individual contracting it and/or succumbing to it?

Any decision as to what to do should be a matter for individuals to decide for themselves based on statistics provided by government.

Terry

i just read some online news. And i think at least those who still think it´s still a individual decision what to do the next weeks should read this article carefully. It describes in drastic words what´s currently going on in italy ...

https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article ... usern.html

here´s a link that translates the article to english:

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... usern.html

For me living in Brixen in Italy it's not so easy feeling nearly imprisoned for the next 3 weeks, although it is for our own health. Even going outside for a small walk to take some fresh air we feel guilty. Any sport like riding with the bike, having a walk for some hours, ..., outside should not be done. I as a software developer in our company should work always from home. So I have no excuses for going outside apart from buying what is necessary. Of course I can use the time to go on with my work, I have still enough to do. But after a while it get's boring and I think: "How nice it would be to go out for a walk just for an hour" Fortunately I am not living alone. But let's think positive, we are not in danger doing like this. :whistle: :woohoo: :silly: :blink: :ohmy:

yes, it is really a pity.... but it is very important to stay at home.....
We exit 3 times a day with our dog for a short walk - that is permitted, but alone, and always to respect a meter of distance between persons.
Nobody knows if the next person is infected or not - not even if he self is infected....
Therefore, with all what we do, we need to keep distance.
Maybe I'm particularly in danger as I have asthma and I'm 57 years old....
Wolfgang

Yesterday strict actions were taken by the South African Government to try and contain the impact of Corona. We have now 51 confirmed cases in South Africa.

Article

Hello,
now also Austria has very similar restrictions like Italy: only exit from home if you have urgent needs like buy food.
Only South Tyrol (with a total of 530.000 habitants) has 204 confirmed infections and 6 death people.
Wolfgang

In my village we don't have any confirmed cases.
I think I'll just take daily walks to the woods, avoiding people but getting a bit of an exercise. I can't imagine being stuck IN the house for a 3 weeks. I'm not living in a city, I can avoid people here easily.

Hi Otto,
both Italy and Austria are permitting movement outside the house, but limited to single persons and always respecting the minimal distance of one meter between persons.
It is strictly prohibited to stop for talks or to form groups.
Unfortunately I'm sure that situation will remain for the next few months.
The isolation will slow down the infection rate, but that will be visible only in 2 or 3 weeks, and then restrictions have to be lowered only a bit and slowly to not provocate a following and harder infection wave (the Spanish Influenza 1918-1920 occurred in 3 waves, where the 2nd wave killed much more people than the first one).
Wolfgang

Guys, can anybody point me to reliable data of infection and death rates due to diseases like influenza and similar in the recent previous years? I am trying to do research on that, but am getting very conflicting results.