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And in South Africa we see the spike happening with the first cases of non-traveler/non-contact reported taking the "published" infection count up from 62 to 85... My take on it, add 00 to those figures.

lumberjack wrote:And in South Africa we see the spike happening with the first cases of non-traveler/non-contact reported taking the "published" infection count up from 62 to 85... My take on it, add 00 to those figures.

Just released the overnight figure in SA has hit 116...

lumberjack wrote:

lumberjack wrote:And in South Africa we see the spike happening with the first cases of non-traveler/non-contact reported taking the "published" infection count up from 62 to 85... My take on it, add 00 to those figures.

Just released the overnight figure in SA has hit 116...

Welcome to exponential growth zone, doubling between 2 and 3 days.
Hope your gov is smarter than european ones were - Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and Thailand were able to stop it at least in the 6 weeks after first infections early on, South Korea had exponential growth/hidden super-spreaders, but was able to curb growth curve. They all had learned from SARS-1.

More to the point: your data hints that hemisphere/summer or winter at the moment is not a deciding factor - although one has to keep in mind that currently virus has the big advantage of encountering zero herd immunity. As no data is available on duration of immunity, and mutatlon rate of SARS-2, there is a high probability that another virus will enter symbiosis with our genomes - decreasing its growth rate as herd immunity grows, thereby not so many clumped patients, which will lessen death rate of critically ill patients probably latest in 2021 - if there is a hemispheral effect currently masked by ease of spreading, next phase could be more massive after summer in northern hemisphere.

Virus able to spread before showing symptoms, and often with no debilitating symptoms, already moved far into human population and thereby save from drastic measures applied to bird and swine flu carrying hosts - buy stocks in first companies developing proven to be working vaccines..

Good chance, that unknown spread in chinese population made it already impossible to stomp out after mid-February, but Western countries really blew it on this one - I see no exception except some being lucky of not being in center of harms way. Uncertain if govs should be blamed more or citizen stupidity would have reigned supreme IAC - some of the currently hard hit countries had issued rules and regulations early on not taken seriously, like Switzerland with high infection per capita rate. What to expect was clear on Chinese data alone, even if they were reporting with some bias. I give the chinese much more credit, as they were first to encounter a black swan (again).

We nerds should consider us lucky, as at least some work can be done via remote - even if the particular group of .dbf afficionados probably has a higher risc due to correlation with age.

regards & best wishes from clamping down Mainhatten (the city, not the typist)

thomas

In the US the fear is driven mostly by the lack of information. How many people are actually infected? 88 confirmed cases in Ohio, a state of 11 million people. Is that all ? Probably not but nobody knows for sure because we don't have the testing kits! Only now is the government (finally in partnership with private firms) beginning to roll out enough testing kits to give us the answer we most seek. Meanwhile everything's closed. We're under restrictions nearly as severe as those Wolfgang describes below.

Here's an optimistic view: https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/ ... vid-19.php

Everyone here fears a situation like the one in Italy, which is all over the news.. So if nothing else, Wolfgang, your suffering has at least become a warning to others.

I don't think it will be quite as bad in the US as some fear. One writer I read today says there soon will be light at the end of this very dark tunnel of ignorance.

OhioJoe wrote:In the US the fear is driven mostly by the lack of information. How many people are actually infected? 88 confirmed cases in Ohio, a state of 11 million people. Is that all ? Probably not but nobody knows for sure because we don't have the testing kits! Only now is the government (finally in partnership with private firms) beginning to roll out enough testing kits to give us the answer we most seek. Meanwhile everything's closed. We're under restrictions nearly as severe as those Wolfgang describes below.

Just hope that it was early enough. Hailing you from state of Hessen, about 16 million but in a state about the fifth of your state. On ^20200312 we had 91 cases, today 742, typical increase between 30-40% each day, doubling count between 2 an 3 days. or ~800% in the last week.
https://www.hessenschau.de/panorama/inf ... e-100.html
About half of todays infection gain is in Frankfurt, officially having ~750000 inhabitants, but usually has ~460000 commuting on normal workday from surrounding area - probably now "gaining" infections as contact is more likely even if trying to distance and regrettable part of work cannot be done from home office..

Per capita rate this still is minute, but I am guessing on a hidden asymptomatic infected rate between 4 and 15 times that of verified/tested occurences, If we cannot curb the exponential growth within next week, we will see death toll rise at much steeper slope as breather beds are getting scarce already. After 14 days our small state would attempt to surpass chinese numbers, but if South Korea was able to flatten the curve and China seems to have reversed it, we will have to blame ourselves - we had ample notice of asymptomatic carriers (one of the first reports came from our university clinic), data from germans flown in in January to our airport and quaranteened 30 Km from here and the data from Webasto in Bavaria. Seems we were testing earlier/more compared to Italy (hence our current low death toll and percentage), but blew it by not reacting earlier.

Here's an optimistic view: https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/ ... vid-19.php
Everyone here fears a situation like the one in Italy, which is all over the news.. So if nothing else, Wolfgang, your suffering has at least become a warning to others.
I don't think it will be quite as bad in the US as some fear. One writer I read today says there soon will be light at the end of this very dark tunnel of ignorance.

It will not end our teeming masses, as soon as 1/3 are infected, infection rate will slow down, at 2/3 herd immunity will probably force the virus to mutate. So surviving next 4-6 weeks (typical incubation time ~7 days, median death ~20 days, typical release if surviving 24 days), is first order of business unless growth rate is drastically cut in the next days. More time for coding...

regards
thomas

88 in Ohio yesterday. 119 today. So there's your 30-40 percent increase. We'll see what happens tomorrow. We're hearing about a malaria drug that might be effective in treatment and will be widely available, so that would reduce the number who eventually need respiratory assistance.

You are correct, Thomas. This forced isolation is leaving more time for coding. Which means, unfortunately for you and others who contribute to this forum, that I'll soon be posting more of my simple-minded missives.

South Africa has hit 150 confirmed cases, 3 of which is in my local town. It is expected that today's announcement will hit 200-250 cases. Unfortunately so far we have only +-5000 tests conducted... The figure is much higher is the consensus

lumberjack wrote:South Africa has hit 150 confirmed cases, 3 of which is in my local town. It is expected that today's announcement will hit 200-250 cases. Unfortunately so far we have only +-5000 tests conducted... The figure is much higher is the consensus

Hi Johan,
trying to sound not too cold blooded:- I hope the count is MUCH higher (everywhere, including my greater backyard). If our societies are currently crippled by less than 1% having been recently infected, something has to give. I am certain 2 or 3 month of Quarantene (not in 1 stretch, but to curb recurring waves) could be handled. But current lockdown cannot be the new normal for 2 years (1% being infected every 2 weeks) - either enough tests are done to allow part of population to return to work or one-time rising death toll will be the price to build herd immunity - as it will happen in any case. One of the reasons I am looking hard at Singapore, Taiwan and South Korean measures. Math says, unless we get at least a borderline effective vaccine we either choose one of the more successful asian ways or start building new makeshift hospitals targeted at specific problems Corona evokes - guessing that death toll in Italy could have been way smaller if more therapy beds were available. Going by the numbers of Singapore where probably all carriers were identified (current spike due to returning citizens from western countries), risc after any "virus replicating in host" contact, which is what I understood the tests to measure (residues of RNA) AND hope to be threshold at which "immunity" at least gets bolstered by an order of magnitude, is small enough if treatment facilities are available and identification/tests are made early.

Either the chinese stats are false or they aim/hope for a vaccine in near future, as no new infections keep herd immunity at the risky level.

regards
thomas

Hi folks,

I live in the center area of this desease, Erkelenz nerby Heinsberg. We had patient one on 24. Feb. 2020, the last day of carnival here. On the next day our local government closed all scools, kindergardens, sports places and halls. Almost everything.

Here https://rp-online.de/panorama/coronavir ... d-49470887 you will see a map auf north rhine westfalia here in germany. If you click on the westmost area, Heinsberg, you will see the curve. The first persons visited an event on 15. Feb. with many hundred people and infected, without knowing of course. That's why we had so many people on the first rund. And yes: it's possible to flatten the curve. Hurray to Stephan Pusch, the man behind these decisions. #hsbestrong with this tag he tells us on a daily basis why and what.
Most other governments feared to do the same eraly enough.
Now we live for four weeks with this situation. It's possible to stand the situation. But there is hope. Look at the curve.
Keep healthy
Frank

Hi,
here we have very positive news: the infection rate is going down now for several days: This is the percentage of increments ( yesterday we had 4050 new positive cases, and a total of 11.591 deaths, with 812 deaths yesterday, so the total number remains high ), and there are calculations that the infection rate could reach the zero around the end of May.
Wolfgang